Week 10 - Top DFS Picks and DraftKings Lineups
Philip Rivers @ OAK ($6,000)
Rivers has been arguably as good as any QB in the NFL this year. He has PFF's 4th best QB grade behind Brees, Mahomes & Goff. His 19 passing touchdowns rank 4th in the league too, paired with his 3 interceptions is a ridiculous ratio.
On the flip side, the Raiders defense has a 19:4 TD-to-INT ratio this year. They are 32nd in Pass D DVOA, 31st per PFF in both pass coverage and pass rush, with an NFL-low 7 sacks. They also lost Bruce Irvin this week who accounted for 3 of their 7 sacks. Rivers might very well be QB1 in fantasy this week.
Mitchell Trubisky vs. DET ($5,600)
I know I talk a lot of bullshit about Mitchell Trubisky and him throwing the ball, but in all honesty, he's actually definitely progressing week-by-week. He still makes some throws that leave you putting curse words back into your mouth, but strides are being made and he's got another really good matchup at home versus Football Outsiders' 30th ranked pass defense. Per PFF, they are the 28th ranked pass rush and 30th ranked coverage defense.
Trubisky only threw the ball only completed 12 passes against Buffalo last week, but you can point to the two defensive touchdowns from the Bears, and prior to that, Mitchy had averaged nearly 32 FPs/game over their last four. Fantasy Football doesn't have to be hard.
~~ The Gabagool ($7,000-$9,000) ~~
Melvin Gordon @ OAK ($9,000)
Rinse, repeat. Give me that Rivers/Gordon stack please. Gordon will get his usual 20-25 touches this game. The Raiders run defense is equally as bad as it's pass. Ranking bottom 5 in run defense per PFF, tackling, FPs allowed to opposing RBs, 25th in Football Outsiders rush DVOA, an NFL-worst 144.5 rushing yards/game, and just about every other statistical category.
Look at what RBs have done to them recently. Last week Mostert and Breida combined for 133 yards & a TD on 20 touches, the week before Mack & Hines 234 yards and 2 scores, the first time these two played Gordon went for 120 yards and a TD on 23 touches & Ekeler also scored. Ekeler is a really good play too, for $4,000 as well. Before the Chargers it was the trio of Chubb, Hyde and Duke - 243 yards and 3 TDs. The list goes on too, but you get the point.
Everyone in this section is a great play, Gurley no explanation necessary, Hunt the hottest RB in the NFL right now versus a horrible run defense in Arizona. The matchup with Hunt is too good tbh. It's so good, that I don't trust it. That's my analysis on that.
~~ Extra Medium ($5,000-$6,999) ~~
David Johnson @ KC ($6,800)
Idk. I'm just gonna roll with Johnson here. The Chiefs are going to dominate this game, they are literally 17 point favorites. Coming out of the bye week I think new OC Leftwich will continue to ride Johnson as a pass-catcher and playing from behind should give Johnson a ceiling of 6-7 catches in this one. The Chiefs are currently allowing the single most FPs to opposing RBs in 2018, including 7.5 catches, over 70 yards and 0.6 TDs/game. We saw Duke Johnson have his best game of the year against them last week, catching 9 passes for 72 yards and two scores. Hopefully, DJ can get it done here. If he can't all hope may be lost.
A lot of this has to do with the fact that they get up so big and teams obviously have to play catch-up, but the Chiefs are also just really bad against the run no matter which way you look at it. They are dead last in both FO's run DVOA, and PFF's run d grade, 26th in tackling and have allowed the 4th most rushing TDs on the year.
Aaron Jones vs. MIA ($5,000)
Yeah, I know, Jones just keeps disappointing, but I'm ready to roll with him again this week against the league's 8th friendliest defenses to fantasy RBs. We saw Lamar extra medium Miller go for 18-133-1 two weeks ago, and Kerryon Johnson 158 on the ground a week prior.
Jones is about as elusive a running back as they come. Among 52 NFL running backs with at least 35 carries on the season, Jones ranks first in YPC (6.0), 5th in tackles avoided/attempt per PFF and 8th in YAC (3.2), the 7th highest graded run grade by PFF and for all the slack he gets, he's literally the #1 ranked pass blocker per PFF on the season. Of course, that's a tiny ass sample size, but still. That elusive rating is particularly juice given the fact that the Dolphins can't tackle for shit, ranking 6th worst in the NFL per PFF.
I went more in-depth into Jones on Thursday's trade target video, but a key to Jones' success and his likelihood of staying on the field will be game script and winning. As nearly 10 point favorites at home against Miami, that shouldn't be a problem.
~~ The Profit Clurb (Under $5,000) ~~
Jalen Richard vs. LAC ($4,800)
I like the next few guys I'm going to talk about more than Richard, but I like that everyone will be off of him following last week where they were blown out and Richard did nothing really. That's when big games happen.
I already said I think the Chargers are going to blow them out, which plays way more into the hand of Richard then Doug Martin. The Chargers defense has been getting stronger as the season progresses, but they let up a lotttt of ground to pass-catching backs. They allow the second most receiving yards/game to RBs and are bottom 10 in receptions. Just looking at their game logs, it's consistency too, not just big games that inflate the numbers. Last week 7-45 to Mike Davis, 6-64 to D-Lew the week before that, 4-73 to Duke, 6-53 to Richard these two already played once, 5-51 to Gurley.
Everything yells Richard in this one.
Duke Johnson vs. ATL ($4,700)
Go ahead and play Duke if you want, it's obviously a glaring matchup for him knowing how many FPs ATL gives up to pass-catching backs, but idk, I just don't really trust Duke to stay consistent in terms of production. Play him at your own risk. I'm gonna fade, considering he'll be chalky.
Dion Lewis vs. NE ($4,600)
I'm not sure that there's a more underrated fantasy/running back in the league than Dion Lewis. I had been telling a lot of people to buy-low on Lewis over the recent weeks, all the signs were there. He was dominating touches, snap counts, 3rd down and passing work, it was only a matter of time before he snapped.
That snapping is referring to the previous two weeks, where Lewis has averaged almost 140 YFS/game, catching 10 passes in that span.
Sure, Henry has scored a couple TDs recently, but Lewis has as many GL & RZ carries as him and has more 10Z carries, while being 2nd on the Titans in RZ targets and catches.
While the Patriots have been relatively good against RBs this year, their weakness is pass-catching backs, especially quick ones like Lewis - Shady, Tarik Cohen, Hunt, Corey Grant all had BIG receiving games against NE. They allow the 5th most receptions/game to RBs in the NFL (6.6) and the 3rd most REC yards.
As nearly TD favorites versus the Pats, look for Lewis to get a featured number of touches in this one. And if you had any worries about Henry, these are the snap % breakdowns over their last three games, Lewis on top.
Mike Davis @ LAR ($4,300)
Davis becomes nearly a must-play if Carson sits. You're not getting many 20+ touch guys at $4,300. Sure Penny will get some run, but Davis already has 20+ carry games on his resume this year so they're comfortable doing that, and we saw last game that he has a high receiving floor as well, catching 7-of-8 targets. And while the Rams aren't easy to run against, they just got torched by Kamara, and let up 12-86-1 (7.2 ypc) to Aaron Jones.
~~ The Gabagool ($7,000-$9,000) ~~
Michael Thomas @ CIN ($8,100)
Honestly, I feel like it might be more helpful telling you guys I'd fade then guys I like priced between $7,000-$9,000. Would you rather smash Karrueche or Kendall Jenner. The answer is yes.
Thomas is coming off of a career-high 211-yard game in Week 9. Thomas takes on the Bengals miserable secondary in Week 10. They looked like they were going to be alright in September, but have gone face first into the ground since playing against the Falcons in Week 4. Actually it literally never started, or stopped. Outside WRs against them - Hilton 5-46-1, J. Brown 4-92-1, Funchess 4-67-1, All 3 ATL WRs (Julio 9-173, Sanu 6-111, Ridley 4-54-2), Week 5 vs. MIA only game where a WR1 didn't eat. Picks right back up in Week 6: AB 5-105-1 & JuJu 7-111, Tyreek Hill 7-68-1, Last game Week 8 before the bye Mike Evans 6-179-1, D-Jax 3-68-1, even Humphries 7-76.
Good lord. May Thomas have mercy on their souls.
Keenan Allen @ OAK ($7,100)
Allen's also coming off a season-high 152-yard game. Just stack Rivers, Gordon, Ekeler, Allen, Williams. All 3, and the whole squad eatin.
~~ Extra Medium ($5,000-$6,999) ~~
Josh Gordon @ TEN ($6,000)
Gordon's been on and off this year in fantasy, but I think him and Brady are starting to hit a groove.
He's getting the long balls. No one else is. He's caught 5, 4, 4 & 5 passes over the last four games, but the targets and air yards are there, averaging 8 targets/game over that span and he has 100 yards in two of their last three. What I really like, though, is his matchup. We got to see Malcolm Butler get humiliated on live TV last week. And while everyone was shitting on Uncle Bill for sitting him and then letting him go, guess who will be licking his chops if he sees Malcolm Butler lining up across from Gordon in this one.
Bill knows that Gordon vs. Butler would be the ultimate mismatch here. PFF has Gordon slotted against Butler in their WR/CB matchup column. Gordon is finally off the injury report so let's roll. We don't know Gronk's status yet, but him playing would be a minor hit to Gordon. Either way I'm a flash fan in Week 10.
Marquez Valdes-Scantling vs. MIA ($5,000)
MVS might be chalky at this point given the Allison news, but I like him a lot in this one. I expect Rodgers to have a ton of success throwing the ball against Miami for a few reasons. One, they're just not a good pass defense. They're PFF's 26th ranked coverage team, and 24th ranked pass rush, 23rd ranked per FO's.
These numbers get even worse when they're on the road, which they will be on Sunday in Green Bay. On the road, the Dolphins allow 274 passing yards and 2.5 touchdowns to QBs.
The reason I like MVS, particularly is that the one bright spot on the outside for Miami is Xavien Howard. Howard has shadowed opposing WR1s in about half of their games and for the most part kept them in check. Jordy's TD was bullshit:
Anyways, Xavien will be on Davante Adams. Leaving MVS to chew up some guy named Torry McTyer, PFF's 6th worst graded outside CB, backed up by PlayerProfiler that has him ranked as one of the NFL's worst too. He's among the NFL leaders in catch % allowed and FPs allowed/RC & MVS has about 5 inches and 20lbs on him. Check, please.
~~ The Profit Clurb (Under $5,000) ~~
Maybe David Moore?
Moncrief has quietly emerged as the WR1 here in JAX.
And he's shown a little more consistency then people probably realize.
Tyrell Williams @ OAK ($4,500)
Yeee we're just going to go ahead and keep shitting on the Raiders, my bad Oakland fans.
Travis Kelce vs. ARZ ($7,000)
I almost feel like you just can't fade Kelce this week. Arizona has been good against the TE, but they've struggled at guarding athletic TEs like Kelce. Kittle has played them twice, 5-57 and 5-83, Burton caught 4-of-5 targets for 55 yards, even Jordan Reed went 4-48-1 against them and Jordan Reed SUCKS. They also rank 23rd in the NFL in FO's TE coverage DVOA.
With Watkins likely out on Sunday, it's a boost to Hill and Kelce's target upside and floor.
David Njoku vs. ATL ($4,200)
Austin Hooper @ CLV ($3,800
I like both guys in this game tbh. CLV's defense, which was a really strong point in the beginning of the year, has quietly turned into an absolute shit show over the last month or so, with all these injuries and what not. Kirksby is done, Ward is hurt, everyone's hurt. I don't necessarily trust either of these guys, but I think they're both good plays.
Ben Watson @ CIN ($3,400)
You want to talk about shitty defenses as of late. Here we go. I talked about why Thomas is going to stomp on the Bengals, but Watson is a quiet good play at TE this week too. Watson has scored in back-to-back games, at least 15 PPR FPs in both of them, and CIN is allowing the 3rd most FPs to the TE position in 2018.
Look for favorites, at home, with low over/unders. To see these, head HERE, under each matchup you'll see the spread and over/under.