Ezekiel Elliott vs. PHI
- I have him down at RB16, ECR has him at RB5 for some dumb fucking reason.
- Nothing about this game is enticing for the Cowboys, if Ben DeNucci is under center.
- The offensive line isn't what is used to be - 13th in run-blocking eff. last year among RBs (per PP), the team always ranked highly, now down at 33 among RBs.
- What does Zeke do best?
- Score touchdowns.
- What are the Cowboys not going to do with DeNucci under center?
- Score touchdowns.
- Vegas has DAL with a 16.5 point line, only the Jets have a lower team point total this week.
- The front 7 is gonna be a massive mismatch - Philly is great against the run - #9 per PFF in run-defense, #3 overall per FOs in adjusted line yards.
- This could very well end up being a 16-50, 3-20 statline or something from Zeke, I just don't see a path to efficiency for him and he's going to need to score to make him a good start, which I don't love the odds.
Devin Singletary vs. NE
- Just like last week, way lower on Singletary than ECR. I have him down at RB35, he's RB22 in ECR.
- Still makes 0 sense.
- He's been running terribly, his last four games: 3.6, 3.2, 2.3, 3.1 yards per carry - that's not gonna get it done when you're only getting 10 carries/game and not getting GL work.
- He's also not catching passes anymore: 2, 1, 1 over the last three weeks, and splitting snaps nearly even with Zack Moss now that he's byke from injury.
- Unless you're in pure desperation mode like Animal, he's probably his like RB2, I don't want any part of Singletary.
So, lot of random situations to talk about.
Ronald Jones vs. Leonard Fournette
- I actually have Fournette ranked higher than Jones this week, and it's possible I'm pulling the trigger too early. I have Fournette at RB19, RoJo at RB22. I think they're both viable RB2s, especially given the matchup.
- They have a team total of 28 points. They won't have Chris Godwin for this.
- RoJo's been running great, the leash is not long. His dropped pass last week officially surrendered third down work to Fournette, and the longer Fournette is on the field, the more rush attempts he's going to get. It's only a matter of time before Arians realizes that one of them is a problem for defenses bc you have to defend both the rush and pass, and that's Fournette.
- So, I do think this will be a committee moving forward for sure, Fournette is going to get at least 1/2 of the valuable touches (receptions). Both of them have 3 GL carries on the year, too. We might start seeing full drives with just Fournette by himself bc of his versatility.
- So, it's not a great matchup per say given the Giants ground defense, but I'll take the RB catching passes from Jones.
Aaron Jones (calf)
- It sounds like there's a legitimate chance that he misses another game against the Vikings, and if that's the case, Jamaal Williams is going to be an RB1 for me. Almost 115 yards, a touchdown, 5 targets and 23 touches last week.
- They get Minnesota this week, it's not a great run defense, they allowed Jones and Williams to combine for 8 catches in Week 1 when they played.
Devonta Freeman (ankle)
- Haven't heard much he was off on the side with a trainer, but isn't really practicing, and the game is Monday night so, extra day of rest coming off of TNF.
- Wayne Gallman would be the guy if he doesn't play.
- But this is a brutal matchup, against TB who is arguably the best all around defense in the NFL right now, from pass to run.
- I have Gallman at RB24, and I don't feel good about that, at all. He's basically a spiderman meme with Zeke.
- He'll get the volume, but that's probably about it. He's more of an RB3/flex than a good start.
Miles Sanders (knee)
- Personally, I'd be surprised if he played and this fucking sucks. Great matchup against Dallas, probably would've popped off for a light 170 spot.
- I hate it here.
- I really do.
- But, Boston Scott becomes a plug and play high-end RB2.
- The only thing that I'm minorly concerned about here for Scott, and I'm probably reaching here, is that Dallas really doesn't allow anything to pass-catching RBs, and they just allow a ridiculous amount of rushing yards, which is something I've pointed out for like 4 straight weeks.
- And that's the opposite of Scott's game. But I could see like a 14-75-1 with 2-3 receptions, he'll be a solid RB2 if Sanders is out.
Same goes for Gio Bernard,
- With Mixon likely to miss another game.
- Gio kind of falls into the same range as Boston Scott, where I don't think they're actually good enough to be straight RB1s.
- And like the Cowboys with Scott, the Titans don't allow much to pass-catchers, just 21 receptions on the year, 2nd lowest tied with DAL, Yards allowed 4th lowest. So I don't expect a boom game from Gio unless he ends up falling into the EZ twice, but he's a solid RB2 as well given the opportunity share.
For those fill-in guys, assuming the starters miss - I have Jamaal Williams up at RB8, Gio at RB12 and Boston Scott at RB14.
Philip Lindsay (concussion)
- It becomes Melvins backfield obviously.
- Little revenge game action??
- The Chargers are a tough defense for sure, they got Justin Jones and Melvin Ingram byke last week, but I remember watching Ingram get hurt again, he's limited at practice so will probably play.
- I have Gordon up around RB15-16, if Lindsay doesn't play.
- Gordon's quietly been really solid this year, coming off of 19 touches, he's averaging over 14.5 half ppr FPs/game - he was hurt, for a game or two, but outside of the game against TB where they got worked, Gordon's touch counts have been 18, 21, 25, 19. Those are legit fantasy touches.
- You could make the case to move him right into that Scott, Gio range, I just like their matchups better and usage in the passing game, but it's nominal.
Then we have two more very messy situations
- Mark Ingram isn't practicing this week, and I'm pretty sure he has a high ankle sprain so Idk why they're pretending like he's going to play.
- It's going to be Gus Edwards and J.K. Dobbins.
- Normally I'd be excited to start both guys, but they play Pittsburgh which is the worst matchup you could ask for.
- Gus will take on Ingram's role, and he'll probably do it better, given what we've seen from Ingram this year.
- Their season-high in rushing yards allowed was 80 to Miles Sanders.... he had a 74 yard run in that game....
- They let up 75 to Derrick Henry last week... on 25 carries.
- 6 to Saquon, 40 to Kareem Hun, these are legit backs.
- But they allow very little through the air either. It's ugly.
- Neither of them are recommended plays outside of borderline flex, I have Gus at RB27, Dobbins at RB29, probably flipped in PPR.
Lastly, we have the shitshow in Seattle.
- Chris Carson, dealing with mid-foot sprain, what Mixon has. He's a game-time decision. No idea if he's going to play, but high re-injury risk if he does. He's week-to-week and Pete Carrol thinks Dak Prescott might suit up this week, so if I had to lean one way, It'd be out.
- Which leads us to two other backs that didn't practice yesterday: Carlos Hyde (hamstring), and Travis Homer (knee contusion). Hyde's doesn't sound serious and I think he'll play, Homer idk and idc tbh.
- It's DeeJay Dallas I lowkey like. He was a guy I liked a lot as a prospect. Very hard-nose runner, with good size (5'10-217lbs) and most importantly a receiving background from U Miami.
- He can play all three downs if forced into it, which is going to be super valuable in this offense.
- Hyde is an RB2 if Carson is out, Dallas is there if all 3 are out.
- Stefon Diggs vs. Stephon Gilmore
- Amari Cooper vs. Darius Slay
- Adam Thielen vs. Jaire Alexander
- Mike Evans vs. James Bradberry
Landry gets 2nd worst slot CB in the league - Lamarcus Joyner (per PFF)
|23||Corey Davis (TEN)||at CIN||35||+12|
|24||A.J. Green (CIN)||vs. TEN||31||+7|