Let's just start with the Raiders offensive, all of them are in contact tracing quarantine right now. Trent Brown tested positive.
Ryan Tannehill vs. PIT
- Listen, he's going to be a top-10 QB for me this week, at home vs. PIT. The Steelers defense is awesome all-around, but they are ELITE against the run. In every way possible. Their pass rush is great, but their coverage is bleh.
- Tannehill has the highest passer rating in the league while under pressure, 7:0 TD INT.
- Tannehill has been way too good for me to sit him. The Steelers are without Devin Bush now. TEN gets Corey Davis byke.
- And I can't really tell you why, but I LOVE when QBs get to stream from home, multiple weeks in a row, this is a little hack I've found over the last few years, byke-to-byke games at home, the QBs get to stay in the zone, they don't lose prep time to traveling, sleeping in hotels, etc. and they tend to get into a fantasy hot streak, and Tannehill is certainly in that right now.
- At home over the last two seasons, he's averaged 254 passing yards, 2.8 passing TDs, 17 ru yards, and 0.44 ru TDs/game.
- The loss of Taylor Lewan will hurt and he might see a lot of pressure, but he's been too good, probably some scrambling with it.
- Tannehill is a guy I'm starting over a lot of guys that you'd probably not agree with me on this.
- I have him at QB10, Cam, QB11, Burrow QB12, Brees QB13, Brady QB14.
- The Bears haven't allowed a fantasy QB to score more than 17.2 FPs against them this year. They're allowing literally on average 11.7 FPs - 4 passing scores through 6 games.
- Goff's last two games against CHI, one last year one in 2018, he's thrown for 178 yards, and 180 yards, with a combine 0:5 TD:INT ratio. This could be an absolute terrible offensive game from the Rams offense in this one.
- The line on this, for Chicago to be getting 6 points, seems crazy to me.
Kenyan Drake vs. SEA
- I have to preface by saying, I have Drake up at like RB16 or 17 so unless you're loaded with backs, which is nearly impossible in 2020, you're probably starting him.
- We talked about this last week, the Cowboys allow the 2nd most rushing yards to running backs, 3rd most TDs, while conversely, the fewest receiving yard on the szn to RBs, 3rd fewest receptions and 0 rec. TDs. If there was ever a week for the Edmonds > Drake train to come to a hault, it was last week, and it did.
- Do I trust Drake now? Absolutely not. This isn't a good matchup for him, The Seahawks have allowed the 3rd fewest rushing yards to opposing RBs on the year.
- Mattison has a big game against them in Week 5, but prior to the Vikes, Todd Gurley's 56 yards on the ground were the most by an opposing back.
- Though, being without Jamal Adams again could open things up for him.
D'Andre Swift vs. ATL
- Falcons been surprisingly good vs. RBs on the ground this year, not through the air tho.
- They've allowed 46 receptions to RBs (2nd behind CAR), 328 rec. yards (2nd behind LV) and a league-leading 4 rec. TDs.
- Now, it gets tricky because the backfield is still completely a time share when you look at snap counts, but this was the first time Swift, or anyone had more opportunities and touches than AP.
- And more so to the pass-catching point, Swift has ran 65 routes this year, compared to 47 from AP, 41 to Kerryon. And has doubled each of their YPRR numbers, he's far more efficient obviously.
- The problem is that Swift had a big lead with those routes after Week 1, so from Week 2 until currently, the routes run are a near dead-even split, Swift 42, AP 38. YPRR 2.76, is 4x APs in that span, just wildly terrible coaching by Patricia.
- Also, lowkey lowkey, the single highest graded run-blocking line on the year, per PFF .... Detroit. And... Swift has the single highest run-blocking efficiency per PlayerProfiler (all stuff you can see completely free on their site).
Justin Jackson + Joshua Kelley vs. JAC
- Both LAC rbs are startable this week.
- Jaguars have allowed the 5th most FPs to the position.
- I know Jackson looked way better, touched the ball a lot more, but the last few weeks have been tough for Kelley in terms of matchups. The Saints and TB on the road, unforgiving.
- Simply, Kelley isn't anywhere near good enough to overcome tough matchups.
- This is not that. As 9 point favorites, expect LAC to control the game and I'd be surprised if both RBs don't walk away with 15+ touches. Jackson getting the air work, Kelley getting the ground work with a lot of chances to get in the EZ.
Devin Singletary vs. NYJ
- I am significantly lower on Single than ECR, RB28 to RB20. I don't understand how we can look at him as a solid mid-RB2.
- Over the last two weeks, he's finished as the RB35 and RB45.
- I don't think the matchup is tough, but Zack Moss being byke, while it doesn't make Singletary the backup, it certainly hurts his usage.
I don't hate Latavius Murray
Per PFF - they only expect one CB to shadow this week and that's bradley roby on Davante Adams. Robey's been good this year, they've had him shadow basically every week, but he's not an issue. We just saw A.J. Brown eat his breakfast, lunch, dinner and snacks in Week 6.
Other Projected Matchups:
- Will Fuller vs. Jaire Alexander
- Allen Robinson vs. Jalen Ramsey
- Tee Higgins vs. Denzel Ward
With Fuller facing a lot of Jaire, this seems like a really good spot for Brandin Cooks who's had byke-to-byke monster games with Bill Obrien out - gets Josh Jackson most likely - who has been a bust for the Packers since drafted in the round after Jaire Alexander in 2018. It's possible that they see Jaire equally on the perimeter but I think Cooks will mostly avoid him, so I've got him up at WR22 right now, ECR has him at WR33.
A-Rob was shadowed by Jalen Ramsey last year when these two teams played, Arob caught 4-of-6 targets for 15 yards. It's gonna be nearly impossible to sit Arob given that he hasn't seen fewer than 9 targets in a game yet this season. Up until last week, the Rams haven't allowed a WR to top 13.1 fantasy points yet this year. Deebo had 15, and almost all his production was on manufactured behind the LOS screen stuff. Not to take away, but that's different than Robinson's game and the Rams have had no trouble keeping that style of play in check so far between guys like Amari Cooper, Stefon Diggs, Terry McLaurin.
Now Tee Higgins I just bring up because he's coming off of another big game, he's taken over as an every-down player and looked good doing it, but Denzel Ward has been very good this year, #3 in PlayerProfiler's CB rankings. They haven't used shadow coverage with Ward this year, so I don't expect it, but still a heavy dose. I have Boyd ranked higher, he's more of a low-end WR3
Another rookie WR I'm a bit higher on is Jerry Jeudy. I have him up at WR33, he's been good this year - and he's coming off of the bad game, where he caught 2-of-5 targets, Drew Lock only completed 10 passes this entire game. He threw 24 attempts, when you look at it that way, the 21% target share isn't worrisome. The Broncos are 9.5 point favorites in this one, expect Lock's pass attempts to almost double. The Broncos run d is very good, their pass d, not so much - so expect passing from KC, meaning passing from DEN. You can say the same thing for Tim Patrick who I think is a fine start this week too, and have him a few spots below.