David Johnson vs. MIN
My Rank - RB14 vs. ECR RB20
So, after seeing what we've seen the last two weeks, it's no surprise DJ has had two shitty games. It was versus the Ravens and the Steelers, DJ at this point in his career is not good enough to be matchup proof, despite what I was told after his first carry in Week 1 that went for like 6 yards.
However, the Vikings, man. Anyone can put numbers on the board against them. 31st in rush defense per PFF. 24th per FOs - just not good.
He has seen all but two running back touches in that backfield since duke johnson got hurt. They're allowing the 8th most FPs to running backs on the year, their defense is hurting. It's just a game that DJ should finally do some good for you.
Darrell Henderson vs. NYG
He needs to be in your lineup. How can he not. 20 carries last week. This team is running the ball on 55% of their plays - single highest rate in the NFL. The Rams are heavy, heavy favorite in this one, -12, expect a ton of work for these running backs.
The NYGiants allowed the 10th most FPs to RBs on the year - especially through the air - which is a strong point of this offense and Henderson's game. They've been quietly good against opposing runners, efficiency-wise, thanks to the resurgence of Leonard Williams, but they've allowed the 6th most run plays of 20+ yards
I also don't think enough is being made of the transformation of this offensive line for the second time in like three years man. When McVay took over, they were absolutely hopeless, turned into a top-5 unit, giving Gurley that success. Last year the run game completely fell off. This year:
- PFF - 2nd in RBing
- FOs - 3rd in Rbing
- PP - Henderson = 4th in RBing Efficiency
Somehow this has become their absolute strength again.
Akers didn't practice on Wednesday, so monitor reports as we get closer to game time, but he'll be limited at best and it won't have a major impact on my rankings of Henderson regardless of if he suits up.
Not sure if you guys saw this, but Arians made some comments about Fournette, saying he's not optimistic about his chances of suiting up, which obviously gives Rojo the featured role in that bykefield against this LAC team who just had Melvin Ingram, Justin Jones and Chris Harris join Derwin James on the I.R. This defense is decimated.
It's time to cool it on this whole Baltimore backfield. Those who drafted Ingram in the 5th round thought they were getting the rushing TDs, they're not. Those that drafted JK Dobbins are still going to have to be patient, they clearly aren't riding him any time soon. And Gus Edwards who no one is starting, has gotten nearly 30% of the opportunities in this backfield. Yeah a lot of that is garbage time, but if you're a team that's going to be in garbage time, and the guys you're starting in fantasy aren't the ones getting it, it matters. James Robinson has scored more fantasy points than the entire ravens backfield combined.
People are still trotting out Ingram as if he's an RB2 - he's finished as RB63, RB18 and RB58. Dobbins is literally averaging 5 touches and 43 yards/game. Had he not scored those 2 tds 3 weeks ago, we wouldn't even be considering him in our lineups.
Same goes for fellow rookie D'Andre Swift - he can't be anywhere near your lineups at this point.
And last rookie is Joshua Kelley - hyped last week - going to cool it this week going against the TB defense.
Travis Homer could end up getting a lot of work in this one. So while he is viewed as more of a pass-catching back, this game could go into blowout mode quickly and if it's just Hyde and Homer, Homer can make some plays, he's explosive enough to make it happen on limited touches.
Alright, let's talk some WRs
So, with the easy matchup, Rams at home against the Giants, this could be a blowout and lead to a lot of ground work as I mentioned with Henderson, obviously not a good thing for the Rams WRs.
Goff has attempted 32 passes or fewer in all three games this year. 31, 27, 32. Last year he did that just 5 times in total. This seems like another game with 30 or fewer attempts. What's particularly worrisome for Robert Woods is his matchup with James Bradberry - who has been lights out for the Giants. He's currently PFF's 3rd highest graded coverage CB, out of 109 qualified.
While, on the flip side, Cooper Kupp gets the single easiest matchup advantage, vs.
Darnay Holmes who has been the 3rd worst graded coverage CB on the year. He's bottom 6 in the NFL in target share/route covered and yards/route covered. He's just very bad. So Woods vs. the 3rd best, Kupp against the 3rd worst. The math adds up, so probably means monster game for Woods and dud for Kupp. Welcome to my life.
I also have DeVante Parker ranked way higher than normal. Up at WR14.
The Seahawks haven't been able to stop a fucking thing through the air. And they're likely without Jamal Adams in this one, and Bruce Irvin's replacement at LB got hurt. It's not good over there. Parkers obviously been less than 100% with the hamstring, but he's had a few weeks to heal now with no setbykes.
Fitz has been more than good enough for fantasy. Over his last ten games as the Dolphins starter he's attempted fewer than 37 passes just twice, averaging 39.1 in that span. I'm feeling a nice 6-80-1 game for Parker in this one, if not bigger.
Three deeper plays, not super deep but more flex WR3 guys
Justin Jefferson @ HOU
My rank: WR30 vs. ECR WR42
I went nuts about Jefferson in this week's waiver wire stream which I'll link down below along with the timestamp within that video if you want to see my thoughts on Jefferson as a player.
While Thielen is expected to get shadow coverage from Bradley Roby, Jefferson is going to be lining up across Vernon Hargraves and/or Eric Murray.
I really think Jefferson is a player to ride while hot right now, he has Kirk's trust, in a good matchup against a soft secondary.
Hunter Renfrow vs. BUF
My rank: WR36 vs. ECR WR46
I mean, Ruggs is out. Bryan Edwards is out.
Buffalo has been absolutely shredded by guys in the slot.
Week 1 - Jamison Crowder 7-115-1
Week 2 - even Isaiah Ford got in on the fun: 7-76
Last Week - Kupp: 9-107-1
With the entire offense banged up, and Buffalo being really soft to TEs as well, expect 80% of Carr's throws to be at the soft middle of the Bills defense.
Greg Ward vs. SF
My rank: WR40 vs. ECR WR70
Y'all have already heard the sorry narrative this week: Eagles have no one on offense to throw to besides Ertz, Sanders who popped up on the injury report (groin), and Ward.
I don't think Ward is super talented, nor do I think SF defense is one to necessarily attack if without a ton of key players injured, but Ward should have a floor of 6-7 targets.
If you want defenses, go check out the waiver live stream from Tuesday, they're in there at the end.
I liek Dalton Schultz a lot this week too, have him at TE11 so right inside the TE1 mix.
Going against this CLV defense, who've allowed the 4th most FPs to the TE position.
- He's currently 7th in targets among TEs
- 4th in RZ targets
- 5th in receptions, 5th in YAC
- On a team passing at the 4th highest rate in the league, scoring over 29 points/game, and running the single most offensive plays per game in the NFL at 76.7. Their pace is crazy right now, fastest in the NFL.