Seattle defense -
Mike Davis (RB13 vs. RB11 ECR)
- This is obviously a tough run defense. These two teams played in Week 2, interesting numbers. Predictably, Cmac struggled on the ground, 18-59 (3.3 ypc), but did score twice, caught 4-of-5 targets for 29 yards. But that was the week he left, and Mike Davis came in caught 8-of-8 targets for 74 yards. That's 13 targets between these two, along with 19 carries.
- A lot of it was garbage time, and I don't expect much success from Davis on the ground, but this should be a big PPR day for him, we saw him start to wind down a bit with the workhorse role without CMAC, he really struggled on the ground against CHI and NO, predictably, but this is another matchup where he'll likely predictably struggle on the ground, so it's hard to look at him as that surefire RB1, but more of a sure start, hoping he falls into the EZ and catches 5+ balls.
- The Panthers are 5.5 point dogs, with a healthy 50.5 ov/un.
Duke Johnson (RB14 vs. RB27)
- David Johnson isn't expected to play this week (conc), so Duke will take over as the featured byke, he was the only rb to get a touch last week after David went down. That alone gets you into the high-end RB2, low-end RB1 conversation.
- The Browns defense, while they aren't the Bucs, have been decent against fantasy RBs, if not good.
- There's not much more to say, I'll be starting him if I have him, but like David Johnson, even with a featured workload I don't think Duke has a massive ceiling, he's just not a very explosive, talented running back imo.
Tread lightly with Darrell Henderson
- I was super excited about Henderson going forward, but he didn't practice Wed. which is bad news coming off the bye, so McVay could be just straight up lying, straight up farcing us. Dealt with the hip injury that pulled him from Week 8.
- If he does play, it's likely he's doing so at less than 100%.
- The other thing to consider here is the opposing defense: SEA.
- You think of seattle and you just think of the worst defense of all time, but that is only on the passing side of things. Just absurdly bad, couldn't make a worse pass defense in a laboratory if u tried. Let Rus cook, well the scientists did whatever the opposite of let cook to this pass defense.
- Now, it's partly because the opposing teams just pass at an extreme success rate, they don't look to run, but objectively, PFF has SEA graded as the #1 run defense in the NFL this year. They are #9 per FOs.
- They have allowed the 3rd fewest rushing yards in the NFL to running backs on the year, only the Bucs and Colts have allowed fewer
- Two other things to note: the Hawks have Jamal Adams byke at full strenght after missing most of the year, he's a top-5 run defending safety and lowkey, grabbed Snacks, the only snacks we acknowledge, Snacks Harrison and he's going to be playing this week it looks like - he's a run defense specialist.
- Obviously, letting up a lot of work to RBs through the air comes with the territory of being the Seahawks, so they've allowed a lot of pass-catchign works to backs, but 1. i dont trust McVay to give Henderson that and 2. Henderson has barely been involved through the air. If I had you guess how many targets and receptions he has, you'd be surprised. In 8 games, he has 15 targets and 10 receptions. Barely over 1 catch/game.
- It's sad. After being dead last in the NFL last year, throwing to their RBs at a clip of 10% of throws, they're 31st this year at 14%. NFL avg is 21%.
Troymaine Pope (RB27 vs. RB55)
- The Chargers really called Kalen Ballage up for a game, let him do real well, then sent his ass back to the practice squad.
- This is literally the NFL equivalent of a nut appointment.
- Jay Z said it best: came (literally), saw, conquered.
- hit up your booty call late night bc your wife, gf, 2nd gf weren't available, don't get me wrong, she's hot. Can even pull in Adam Gase here. Kalen Ballage without Adam Gase is like the cute girl that gets a boyfriend and lets herself go, but when they break up, she's like oh fuck im single now, gotta get byke in the gym and start posting selfies on all my social media again and shit.
- Sad story.
- We were saying something about Troymaine Pope right.
- Well he's byke after his concussion.
- This is assuming Justin Jackson is out, which I think will be the case.
- Troymaine Pope played the RB2 role in Week 8 over Josh Kelley, it's clear they don't trust Kelley as the guy, after letting Kalen Ballage run the show last week. At this point, Joshua Kelley is reserved for lights came on at the bar status, Joshua "last call" Kelley.
- Pope went 10-67 on the ground and 7-5-67 through the air.
- Over the last five weeks, the Chargers have averaged a healthy 30.6 ppg, never fewer than 26, only three teams are averaging more PPG on the year.
- That's an offense and a RB you want a part of.
- Moreso because of their pace and amount of plays they're running.
- Right now the Chargers are the 4th fastest paced offense in the nfl and Herbert is averaging 75.6 plays/game. That's insane and would've have led the NFL in 2019 and wouldn't have been particularly close. To make that simple: If Herbert were to throw the ball 40 times/game, that still leaves 36 running back touches.
- You want a part of this backfield, as long as you can pick the right guy lol.
Jonathan Taylor (RB31 vs. RB20)
- At RB20, you're telling me you're pretty confidently starting JT as your RB2, I just don't know how you can do that.
- He's getting like a 25% snap share, not catching passes, fumbling the ball.
- He's a guy I'm going to need to see be good on a football field again, or at least in fantasy with volume before he's byke in my lineup.
- Last week we called a Rex Burkhead game, low-and-behold, we go it.
- With Damien Harris likely out with the chest injury, he might be it again tbh.
- But let's go with Jamaal Williams.
- Coming byke from the covid list.
- The Jags are starting Jake Luton (in Lambeau - pickup GB defense if they're available and u need a streamer)
- The Packers are 13 point favorites in this one people, with an over/under of 50 points, meaning they're implied point total is 32.5
- Obviously Aaron Jones is going to blow his entire load in this one, but the Jags are meh at defending the run and with the game script, the volume for Williams will be there.
- In the two games this year where the Packers won by this spread (or more) and Aaron jones was playing, Williams averaged 12 touches and 84 total yards. He gets into the EZ which I think is a decent shot in the 4th quarter and you're looking at a nice RB2 finish.
Shadow Coverage (per PFF)
Brandin Cooks been absolute fire L3-4 games
- Since they let go of Bill, Cooks has had at least 9 targets in all four games, scored in 3 of 4, averaging 17.2 half ppr fppg.
- They play Cleveland in Week 10. CLV has allowed the 5th most FPs/game to WRs in 2020 - 36.7 FPPG to WRs.
- Watson has been absolutely fire since then too, and with David Johnson likely out, they'll air it out more than usual.
Tim Patrick (WR32 vs. 42)
- idk why we're still sleeping on Timmy P. Timmy Patty Mayonaise.
- he's scored or went over 100 yards in 4-of-5 last games.
- he gets my guy Nevin Lawson of LV this week, who is 82nd of 120 CBs in coverage for PFF.
- Another healthy over/under of 51 points, Broncos 5 points dogs in beautiful 70 degree weather.
You can go byke to Corey Davis this week
- They're going to struggle on the ground, it's impossible to run against the Cots.
- And with the attention going to AJ Brown from Xavier Rhodes, Davis who has been great this year, but everyone's down on him coming off of his one dud game, gets Rock Ya-Sin, just wildly incredible birth name, but not wildly incredible in coverage, 92nd ranked in coverage per PFF.
- Feels like a game the pass d sells out to stop AJB and gives a funnel to Corey Davis.
Curtis Samuel is interesting as well with Cmac out.
- He's now seen 5+ targets in four straight games, is getting 3-4 carries/game and will continue to get those with Cmac out and a lot of them are coming in the RZ. He's scored four touchdowns in his last four games, two in the air, two on the ground.
- I'm not as sold on Samuel as a lot of people bc we've seen his inconsistencies as a fantasy player for too many years already, but on paper it makes sense.
- Jakobi Meyers (Ravens get Humphrey byke, check slot rate for Meyers)
GB for sure (61%)
the other one I'd consider is MIN. Good against the run, so it's the battle of a bad pass d vs a bad QB.