What a week. As some of you may know, I'm a complete fraud when it comes to making weekly picks, so it may not be the best idea to broadcast them to you guys. Because of my ineptitude, I decided to turn my fate over to a kid who doesn't watch football outside of the Giants, and so far, he's killed it. After going negative/even the first 7 weeks, I went 10-4 in week 8, and last week, we went 9-4. Honestly, this magic may never run out. Without exaggerating, this could be a top 5 comeback story of all time. In weeks 1-7, my picks were mayhem, but now, this is All State, you're in good hands.
CURRENT RECORD - 65 - 69 - 0
CAROLINA PANTHERS @ PITTSBURGH STEELERS (-3.5)
PICK: STEELERS (-3.5)
CONFIDENCE: 7/10
The Panthers are rolling, but they almost let Ryan Fitzmagic and company almost come back with a late surge last week. The Panthers offense has shown they can keep up with anybody, but their defense hasn't done much to keep their opponent off the field. With the Steelers at home and Big Ben coming back from the dead, I'm not sure you could bet against Pittsburgh. They always play much better at home, and with Carolina's defense not looking like they can put up much of a fight, they should be able to score a shit ton of points. This is mostly a toss up, and my only confidence stems from the fact that I'm not the one making these picks.
DETROIT LIONS @ CHICAGO BEARS (-6.5)
PICK: BEARS (-6.5)
CONFIDENCE: 8/10
Matt Stafford somehow left last week alive, getting sacked 10 times against Minnesota. The offensive line might as well have put a welcome mat in front of the center. If Khalil Mack plays, this could get ugly, and quick. Even if he sits, I'm not sure how well the Lions will be able to move the ball. There will be a basically non existent running game, as the bears have allowed over 60 yards rushing ONCE, and you'll never guess who it was (I'll give you a hint, he's about 45 years old and put up 53 yards on 20 carries last week). Stafford will be forced to throw, and with the Bears creating turnovers like a bakery, they should be able to keep them off the field. As far as Chicago's offense goes, they have shown they can flip a switch when needed. Trubisky isn't the best QB in the NFL, far from it, but he can take advantage of plus matchups, as he has shown against the Jets, Pats, Dolphins, and Bucs (combining for 14 total touchdowns over that 4 week span). Even on the road, the Bears should dominate.
NEW ORLEANS SAINTS (-4.5) @ CINCINNATI BENGALS
PICK: SAINTS (-4.5)
CONFIDENCE: 9/10
Last week, the Saints proved they are one of the best teams in the league, taking down the LA Rams. This week, they're going on the road to Cincy, and honestly, I don't see a way they don't win big. The Bengals will be without A.J. Green, so they will need to rely on Tyler Boyd to be their WR1. Also, I'm not sure how much Mixon will provide out of the backfield, as the Saints proved to be lockdown, holding Todd Gurley to just 79 yards from scrimmage. As for the Saints offense, they're cooking (without Brandin) and should have no trouble against the Bengals. This spread could be a trap, but I'm not worried about it. Give me the Saints.
ATLANTA FALCONS (-4.5) @ CLEVELAND BROWNS
PICK: FALCONS (-4.5)
CONFIDENCE: 8/10
The Browns are in a similar spot this week, playing a high powered offense with a bad defense. The difference, though, is that the Falcons offense isn't on par with the Chiefs and even their defense isn't as good. Despite this, I'm not sure the Browns can do anything to keep it close. They're a complete mess of a team, and at this point, they don't have a shot at the playoffs. It's a relatively small spread, so I'm confident in taking the better team.
JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS @ INDIANAPOLIS COLTS (-2.5)
PICK: JAGUARS (+2.5)
CONFIDENCE: 1/10
The Jaguars are an absolute mess. They're coming off a bye, so could things change? Who knows. Fournette could come back, but honestly, I'm not sure how much he improves the team, if at all. Blake Bortles is a liability, so their passing game has no consistency or firepower. As for the Colts, they look to have found their groove with Luck throwing dots and Marlon Mack tearing apart every team. With Indy at home, they should be able to handle the Jags, but then again, I'm awful at making picks. With my rationalization, I'd go Indy, but the man behind the mask is taking the Jags, so that's what we're rolling with.
ARIZONA CARDINALS @ KANSAS CITY CHIEFS (-16.5)
PICK: CARDINALS (+16.5)
CONFIDENCE: 2/10
I honestly don't hate this pick. The Chiefs are in a completely different conversation, but Rosen was looking a little bit better before the bye week. Do I think they have any chance at winning? No way, but they could keep it close. Maybe David Johnson goes crazy, or maybe Fitz turns back the clock, helping to keep it within 17. The stars would have to align for this to happen, so I'm not counting on this happening, but we're living on the edge out here.
BUFFALO BILLS @ NEW YORK JETS (-7.5)
PICK: JETS (-7.5)
CONFIDENCE: 5/10
How much would you have to be paid to watch this entire game?Sam Darnold vs Josh Allen is something I never want to see, but it's a matchup we'll get twice a year for the foreseeable future, so buckle up. The Jets suck, but I think the Bills may be even worse. Honestly, just stay as far away from this game as you can, and if you live anywhere in the vicinity, I apologize for the stench that will be pouring out of MetLife Stadium around 1 PM on Sunday.
WASHINGTON REDSKINS @ TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS (-2.5)
PICK: REDSKINS (+2.5)
CONFIDENCE: 8/10
For everything that's wrong with the Skins offense, the Bucs match that with their defense, and then some. The Bucs are allowing 34.4 points/game and have given up at least 30 in 5 of their last 6. Even being led by Alex Smith, Washington should be able to keep up with whatever Fitzmagic puts up. On the other side, the Skins are allowing the 9th least points per game. They are an above average defense and are facing Fitzpatrick, who could implode at any second. What if he does and they bring in Jameis? Even better. I'm taking the Skins with confidence, as they should be able to keep up and expose the frauds the Bucs role out behind center.
NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS (-6.5) @ TENNESSEE TITANS
PICK: PATRIOTS (-6.5)
CONFIDENCE: 9/10
Malcolm Butler revenge game! Dion Lewis revenge game! Logan Ryan revenge game! Mike Vrabel revenge game! The Titans basically have a recycled Patriots roster. Belichick has so much film on these guys (legal and illegal) that he'll know their every move before they make them. Honestly, they probably don't even need to know their every move, as the Titans will out-think themselves by not thinking at all. They are huge frauds and the Brady Bunch will expose them. By reading this, you'd think I'm a Pats fan. Well, I'm the furthest thing from it, but I live in reality, and in the real world, the Titans shouldn't be put in the same sentence as the Patriots. 6.5 is a joke. Pats by a million.
LOS ANGELES CHARGERS (-10.5) @ OAKLAND RAIDERS
PICK: CHARGERS (-10.5)
CONFIDENCE: 7/10
This game scares me as a Chargers fan. They've handled all of the bum teams they've faced recently en route to a 6-2 record, and even won on the road against a strong Seattle squad last week. What worries me is that the Raiders got their backs blown out by Nick Mullens on national TV, and now, they're heading into the black hole. Their lives are literally on the line with that fanbase going wild, so I don't have the utmost confidence they roll over this week. 10.5 is a huge spread, but if there's one thing the Chargers do well, it's score (not including kicks, fuck you Sturgis). As long as Badgley makes his kicks and Phil Rivers slings as many TDs as he has kids, they should be gucci this week.
MIAMI DOLPHINS @ GREEN BAY PACKERS (-9.5)
PICK: PACKERS (-9.5)
CONFIDENCE: 8/10
The Packers STINK, but guess what, the Dolphins are even worse. They beat up on the Jets last week, mostly because Sam Darnold handed them the ball multiple times. The Packers' defense is far from elite, but with Brock Osweiler only being able to throw to a banged up Kenny Stills and running the ball with an ancient artifact, they just may look top notch. As for the Packers' offense, the Dolphins won't be able to do much of anything to stop them. Reports are surfacing that Rodgers is fasting this entire week ahead of this feast on Sunday. 9.5 is a heavy, but if there's one thing I know about ARod, it's that he's no stranger to a big spread (shoutout Olivia Munn).
SEATTLE SEAHAWKS @ LOS ANGELES RAMS (-9.5)
PICK: SEAHAWKS (+9.5)
CONFIDENCE: 5/10
The Seahawks aren't the same team on the road as they are at home, but in this spot, against a divisional rival, I think they have a real shot of keeping this game within reach. Seattles' offense can't hold a candle to the Rams', but I think Wilson will be able to work his magic and keep it close. Earlier this year, the Seahawks kept it within 2, though they were playing at home. It'll be tougher on the road for sure, but I have faith in the child of God known as Russell Wilson to prove his worth in the City of Angels.
DALLAS COWBOYS @ PHILADELPHIA EAGLES (-6.5)
PICK: EAGLES (-6.5)
CONFIDENCE: 10/10
I'm not even sure what to say. The Cowboys lost to the Titans in primetime to one of the most fraudulent teams in the league. This is a divisional matchup and the Eagles need to win now to have a shot at the playoffs. With the edition of Tate, this offense should be Golden (I'll see myself out), and no matter how many first round picks Dallas gives up to get mediocre receivers, they're not taking down the Eagles. With Philly at home, they shouldn't have a problem.
NEW YORK GIANTS @ SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS (-2.5)
PICK: GIANTS (+2.5)
CONFIDENCE: 0/10
Any time I choose the Giants I feel sick to my stomach. Eli is a mess and their defense is a doormat. With that being said, the 49ers may not be able to take advantage of that. Matt Breida may not make it to Monday night and their lone brightspot, George Kittle, won't be able to carry the entire team on their back. Nick Mullens may start again, and I'm not putting my money on him pulling one out in a 2nd straight national TV performance. As for the Giants' offense, their o-line and Eli are a match made in heaven for opposing defenses, but I'm not sure the 9ers defense has the competence to take advantage. OBJ and Barkley could break off huge plays, helping them to go up big, and being underdogs, I *gulp* like this pick.
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