13. Najee Harris - Pittsburgh Steelers
As I talked about in yesterday's video about Chase Claypool, it's really obvious to me that the Steelers want to go way more run-heavy this year.
Steelers 2nd highest in the league in pass rate 65.5%.
Najee's volume should suggest mid-RB1 realistically in fantasy, but it's going to be tough to see a ton of efficiency behind that offensive line. Both Conner & Snell ranked outside the top-45 rbs in fun-blocking efficiency per PP and Steelers RBing line ranked 31st per PFF.
That being said, I think Najee is gonna be a hell of a player. Volume + Talent tends to be good for fantasy.
If you combine James Conner & Snell last year you're looking at
- 280 carries
- 1090 rushing yards
- 10 rushing touchdowns
- 57 targets
- 45 catches
- 276 rec. yards
I really don't think those numbers are unreachable for Najee.
For as much shit as we're giving this offense, with a broken Ben last year, they averaged nearly 27 PPG, top-12 in scoring.
Everyone proclaims Najee as a floor play, but we don't know what his ceiling is. What if he gets 300 carries? What if he gets 65 targets? What if he's in that Le'Veon Bell role immediately?
Najee feels like one of the easiest players to project to be a top-5 pick next year that isn't right now.
14. CEH - Chiefs
Broke him down in depth in last week's sophie second video, so go check that out if you want more explanation on him.
15. J.K. Dobbins - Baltimore Ravens
He's the best running back in a really good run offense, it's that simple.
He's down at 13/14 because his ceiling is capped with Gus Edwards having a major role in the offense.
But he could very well have a Mark Ingram 2019 type year. High efficiency, 5.0ypc averaging between 12-15 carries/game, not seeing much in the passing game, as expected, but scoring a ton of TDs. Dobbins was great on the GL last year.
You might think of Gus as the GL back bc he's big, but over the 2H of last year, Dibbins out-carried Gus on the GL 7-4. Gus scored just once on those 4 carries, Dobbins scored 6 of 7 times. Insanity. Very much like Aaron Jones. And basically what I said with Dandre Swift yesterday, the coach has already shown to use Dobbins on the GL, whereas Swift's new OC, Anthony Lynn, has shown to go wildly in favor of the bigger back on the GL.
Dobbins is another floor play at the position, that could be really good if he gets some TD luck this year. Over the last two seasons, with Lamar under center, RBs in Baltimore have scored 38 touchdowns, 19/season. We could see Dobbins score 11 and Gus with 8, something like that.
16. Aaron Jones - Green Bay Packers
Pretty simple here. Aaron Jones - he'll shoot all the way byke up probably into the Zeke like RB5-6-7 range if Rodgers is byke. He'll drop significantly if Jordan Love is their QB. We have no idea what his tendency to throw to RBs is. We have no idea if this team will be any good at all if Love is the QB. They also lost all-pro center corey linsley to the chargers this summer, who knows is that'll have an impact on Jones' efficiency as a runner.
17. Chris Carson - Seahawks
I'll take the starting running back behind Russell Wilson in the 3rd all day.
Stop me if you've heard this before: Rashaad Penny is out with a knee injury...
I would've stopped making videos on this channel years ago.
I feel like for whatever reason people are letting him slip because Rashaad Penny, I guess? Idk.
But yeah, Penny is already missing time because of the knee.
Carrol describes everything as a cleanup.
Just more missed time from Penny.
Carson was good last year. On an efficiency level, Carson was as good as ever, setting a career-high with 4.8 ypc, he averaged just 0.2 fewer FPPG than in 2019, and his per/game receiving numbers paced out to: 61 targets and nearly 50 receptions for 383 yards.
18. D'Andre Swift - Lions
I went in on yesterday, so go watch that video if you want the full thing.
He's going to be great in the passing game. But Jamaal Williams absolutely represents a problem for him in the rushing volume department. Also at the GL. We've seen Anthony Lynn shove his "A-Back" into the GL role, year over year.
Wouldn't be surprised if we saw J-Will handle GL duties in 2021.
There's risk with Swift.