Hi there Steven Mullen here breaking down some DFS for 2019 week 1. I will be targeting specifically the millionaire maker on Draft Kings. Only players from the 1pm and 4pm games are available for this tournament so I will not be looking at any players from Thursday, Sunday or Monday nights games.
1. Kyler Murray Ari 5600
I am super interested in a game stack from Detroit@Arizona. If Arizona has its way and runs 90 plays a game they will warp daily fantasy much in the way the Eagles did under Chip Kelly. Draft Kings scoring is weighted towards running QBs and I expect Kyler to be on full display week 1. Kyler's rushing upside puts him over Stafford.
2. Matthew Stafford Det 5400
Again we want to game stack Arizona games right of the bat and get ahead of the curve on the Air Raid and it's possible effect on NFL games. I like stacking Stafford with any combination of his big 3 targets Golladay, Jones, Hockenson. Patrick Peterson is suspended for this game and someone on the Lions is going to go wild vs that defense. Lets not forget Marvin Jones has a 200+ yard receiving game on his resume.
3. Lamar Jackson Bal 6000
Lamar Jackson will be facing a juicy match week 1 in Miami. Again very interested due to the scoring system on Draft Kings. For me Jackson is a bit more of a stand alone I'm not that interested in stacking him except with Mark Andrews. Jackson has upside of 100 rushing yards and multiple rushing TDs.
4. Jimmy Garrapalo SF 5800
Another game I am looking to game stack is SF@TB. The reason I'm more into Jimmy G then Winston is because TB's defense is significantly worse then SF. The 2nd reason is because Winston is the 3rd most expensive QB on the slate at 6600. With all the toys Kittle, Pettis, Deebo, Goodwin in town and a fantastic match up Jimmy could go off. I would prefer to stack him with Kittle and Pettis but if Goodwin comes into the season with an actual role in this offense he could be the guy that wins someone a million dollars.
Sneaky Nick Foles Jax 5300
My sneaky QB to win you a big tournament week 1 is Nick Foles. Home vs the Chiefs I think Foles will be forced to throw and throw and throw. I don't believe this Chiefs offense can be contained so I think it could be a huge day for Foles. I could see 300 yards and 4 tds coming from a guy that will have super low ownership. I would look to stack him with Dede and whoever wins that WR 2 job right now the leading candidates are Conley and Chark. Keep in mind if Conley wins the job he will have a little extra juice for this one playing against his former team.
Running Back Picks
1. Ezekial Elliott Dal 9200
Zeke will be home and seeing a Giants team he absolutely savaged late last season. After the Giants lost Snacks Harrison their run defense fell apart. They have addressed this in the draft however the Cowboys Oline also has key pieces returning and I don't see a rookie DT being able to put up that much resistance in his 1st NFL start.
2. Nick Chubb Cle 6400
Chubb will be home vs the Titans. Much like last year when Kamara was forced to take on a featured role early in the season you want to hammer Nick Chubb until his price reflects his role. Even in a medium match up Chubb is a must play at this price point. I expect Cleveland to win this game fairly easily and while the Titans defense isn't bad Chubb can still have a monster day.
3. Dalvin Cook Min 6000
Cook will be home vs the Falcons week 1. If there has been one on going issue with the Falcons defense it has been their struggles vs pass catching RBs. I believe Cook is game script proof and will put up big #'s in this one regardless of who comes out on top.
4. Kerryon Johnson Det 5800
Back to where we began with the Det@Ari game. With work horse touches possible and an absolutely fantastic price point Kerryon could have a massive week 1. No matter if Detroit is winning or losing this man should see plenty of the ball. Draft Kings is full PPR so having Riddick out of the picture is fantastic for Kerryon. If Arizona is able to push the pace of this game as much as they want Kerryon could be the best play of week 1.
5. Tevin Coleman SF 5000
My favorite RB from our other game stack we like SF@TB. With Jerrick McKinnon looking more and more out of the picture I love Coleman vs what i expect to be a very poor TB defense. Coleman can really be hot and cold just look at last year when he whipped Carolina's highly thought of run defense. I would expect him to start hot week 1 and he has a fantastic price point.
Wide Receiver Picks
1. Kenny Golladay Det 6300
With Patrick Peterson suspended week 1 I expect Golladay to dominate whoever covers him. If Arizona is able to push the pace of the game and put some points up I think Golladay can finish the week as a top WR. Golladay has a fantastic price point as well I expected him to be in the 6800-7300 range.
2. Christian Kirk Ari 4700
Kirk is my favorite WR from the Arizona side of the Det@ARI game stack. I believe Slay will end up on Larry Fitzgerald and Kirk will have the luxury of facing the Lions #2 corner. Slay has struggled with faster corners in the recent past so I think they will use him to lock down Larry Fitz and figure out another way to try and stop Kirk. I am certainly more interested in Kirk if I go with Murray as my QB in a line up.
3. Marvin Jones Det 4800
I know its almost like I am obsessed with this game. I really am. We saw what a hyper paced game plan could do to fantasy with Chip Kelly in Philly and I want to strike before everyone picks up on it with Arizona in 2019. Again Marvin Jones has put up WR 1 seasons and has had huge games before.
4. Dede Westbrook Jax 4800
WR 1 on his team check, playing vs Chiefs check. I am going to assume the Chiefs can't be stopped until I see someone do it in the regular season. I believe the Jags will be forced to throw a ton in this one and that's not something new OC DeFillippo shy's away from. He threw so many passes he drove Mike Zimmer to fire him from Minnesota.
5. Curtis Samuel Car 4200
At home vs the Rams I expect a high scoring high tempo game. Curtis Samuel has shown he can score from any where. He also will likely add some rushing yards for you. He stood out to me as the most under priced WR on the board with his combo of skills and expected game script.
Tight End Picks
1. OJ Howard TB 5000
I much prefer the TE's from my 2nd game stack SF@TB. OJ Howard is kind of a DFS beast he gives you multi TD upside, and 80 yard TD upside. His price point is lower enough compared Kittle at 6600 that for he's the pick. I suspect some people will avoid Howard due to Arians history of not using the TE as much. I have this fear a bit myself but when you are trying to win a tournament those are the risks you need to take and hit on.
2. George Kittle SF 6600
If you can find a way to make the salaries work I prefer Kittle to Howard from the SF@TB game. So far when building teams I have really needed the discount so Kittle comes in as my #2 pick. Tampa Bay linebackers were pitiful last season. They have upgraded that position in the draft but its unlikely huge strides can be made there by week 1. As the 49ers psuedo WR1 I expect Kittle to see many targets and score many points.
3. Mark Andrews Bal 3000
Ok 3000.......WHAT!!!!!!!! If you want to punt TE you punt it here. Andrews has a great match up in Miami. We saw Andrews score a 68 yard TD vs the Chargers last season so we know he has big play potential. I am of the belief Andrews will be the pass catcher Lamar Jackson leans on most early in the year. He will be looking to get easy completions and any completion to Andrews has a shot at being a long TD much like Kittle and Howard.
I will have a companion video to this article out on youtube sometime in the evening of 7/29.
Get that million!