Julio Jones got played.
It's like when your girl calls up your best friend to see where you're at. But you didn't give him the heads up, to let him know that he's gotta tell her that you're with him. Instead he says "what you mean, he's not with you? he said tonight was date night."
Julio asked for a trade weeks before the NFL Draft.
He's 32 years old. He is far from washed.
He will be fine in 2021, which is why I want to keep him on Atlanta, but whatever.
The window for the trade actually happening is after June 1. They can defer a $15M dead cap hit to 2022 which they literally need. Physically. Or they're gonna be on the sidelines for next year.
If he were to be traded, the team acquiring him would have to have at least $15.3 million in available cap space to take on his current contract, which runs through 2023. As it stands, 11 teams -- Jacksonville, the New York Jets, Cincinnati, Denver, Cleveland, Washington, Indianapolis, the Los Angeles Chargers, Detroit, San Francisco and New England -- currently have $15.9 million or more in cap space, per Over The Cap.
There aren't any landing spots I see where his value goes up.
You quickly go down the list:
- New England - 2nd to last in pass rate, who knows what Cam has in his arm
- Las Vegas - could definitely be interesting - have seen Gruden churn out big fantasy WR1 seasons before. Julio could see 130+ targets here.
- Chargers - very interesting landing spot. On the surface, seems like it might be messy, but not really. It's Keenan Allen and Austin Ekeler. Hunter Henry is gone. Mike Williams is whatever, a complimentary outside WR at this point and he's a FA after this year. This is one of the few places he could land and hold dynasty value because of Justin Herbert of course.
If I own Julio, the Chargers are the premiere landing spot outside of staying Atlanta.
- Ravens - The run heaviest team in the NFL.
- The Colts are actually another interesting and realistic landing spot. If he goes there, he actually has a shot of 130+ targets. The Colts have T.Y. Hilton who's far past his prime. Michael Pittman who had every chance to take over as an alpha last year. Parris Campbell whose missed the majority of his first two years in the NFL.
- Jaguars - can definitely take him on $$ wise, I don't like the landing spot. He'd be the alpha, but still too many WRs there to expect more than like 115 targets.
- 49ers - would really not like this. Lance will be run-heavy offense, Kittle-Deebo-Aiyuk. Would hurt Aiyuk a lot, as the "outside guy".
One of the big questions, is what happens to Atlanta when Julio is gone. It's gonna be tough, but it'll be easy to predict. Everything goes through Calvin Ridley:
He becomes a top-5 fantasy WR for 2021. Ridley is currently the WR8, 25 overall. That's definitely with Julio being moved hype a bit in there cause I've seen him consistently available a few weeks ago in the late 3rd round, early 4th.
Matt Ryan will suffer:
Kyle Pitts will skyrocket up: Current ADP TE4, Overall 60
I think people will put him directly into the Waller and Kittle tier. Right into the 3rdish round of fantasy drafts. That I cannot do.