Sterling Shepard (NYG) vs. Steven Nelson (KC)
- Steven Nelson took the CB slot position from Phillip Gaines following the onslaught they took from the Oakland passing game back in Week 7 (Cooper's 2,000-yard game). Admittedly, the pass defense has been much better since the move, but it won't be enough to alter the ridiculous floor Shepard has as the default WR1 for the New York blue.
- Back from injury and at full health, Shepard has seen 22 targets over his last two games. That's a crazy 30.1% target share. Only D-Hopkins, Larry Fitz and Marqise Lee have seen more in the same span. While I expect that number to eventually fall back down to earth, it won't be by much.
- We only have a small sample size to work off of for Nelson (67 routes), but he's currently graded out as the 5th worst CB overall and 2nd worst slot CB per PFF in those limited number of snaps. Only David Amerson on Oakland is allowing more fantasy points per route covered (0.45) among all CBs in Week 11.
- Kansas City as a team has given up the single most fantasy points to the WR position this season, thanks in part to their offense which has been scoring so efficiently and put opposing team on the attack. We should see much of the same as this NYG pass defense has been getting absolutely shlacked.
- Coming off of a career-high in targets (13), receptions (11) and receiving yards (142), this is a perfect storm for SS - a genuinely good blend of floor, ceiling, opportunity and good matchup.
Jeremy Maclin (BAL) @ Damarious Randall (GB)
- Maclin, who has run 62% of his routes for Baltimore out of the slot this year, leads all Ravens WRs in targets, receptions, yards and touchdowns. He's quietly on a szn-long pace of 61 catches, 710 yards and 7 touchdowns. He's coming off of back-to-back strong performances (3-53-1, 8-98) and gets a great matchup versus the NFL's 3rd lowest graded slot CB, Damarious Randall.
- Randall is the 6th lowest graded CB overall according to PFF and ranks bottom-15 in both yards allowed per route covered (1.64), fantasy points allowed per route covered (0.37) and catch percentage (68%).
- Green Bay overall is allowing the 5th most fantasy points to the WR position in 2017. In their 9 games, this Green Bay defense has allowed 9 different WRs to surpass 80 receiving yards, five (5) of them coming in the last three (3) weeks (Inman, Tate, M. Jones, M. Thomas, Ginn).
- GB is also allowing the NFL's highest percentage (40.3) of passing plays to convert 1st downs against them. As a slot receiver, running high percentage routes, Maclin should take advantage and consistently move the chains for Baltimore. But big plays come often in Lambeau as well, this defense allowing the 7th most passing plays of 20+ yards in 2017 (32).
- Maclin will be on the WR2/3 radar, especially in PPR formats this year, luckily for me I'm a Maclin owner in 0.5PPR+0.5-1stDown.
Tyreek Hill (KC) @ Eli Apple (NYG)
- Hill won't be exclusively covered by Eli Apple, because he moves around too much. 29% of his routes are from the left, 37% in the slot, the remaining 34% from the right side.
- The freak will get a mix of Apple, Janoris Jenkins and DRC. For as much praise as these guys received individually prior the szn, all three of them grade outside of PFF's top-50 CBs so far in 2017.
- What makes the matchup so great for Hill is his home run hitting ability. We all know about his all-world speed and ability to blow the top off of a defender, but it couldn't come against a better opponent, maybe the Texans now that I'm thinking about it, but that's neither here nor there.
- The Giants defense has given up so many big passing plays over the last few weeks, I lost track. The 83-yarder to Marquise Goodwin in Week 10, it was Watkins (67-yard TD) and Robert Woods (52 and 4-yard TDs) the week prior and Paul Richardson (38-yard TD) and Doug Baldwin (22-yard TD) before them. It's a cycle that I doubt will be disrupted by Hill, arguably the NFL's most explosive player.
- Here's a deeper dive on the Giants pass defense on the year - tied for most passing TDs allowed (20), 4th fewest INTs (4), 3rd most passing yards allowed per game (268), 2nd most passing plays of 20+ yards allowed (35), and 4th most passing plays of 40+ yards allowed (9).
- You probably didn't need to read this to figure out starting Hill was a grand idea.
Devante Parker (MIA) vs. Robert McClain (TB)
- Consistency is the name of the game when it comes to Devante Parker. Parker missed three games due to an ankle injury earlier this year and left Miami's Week 5 game after just 3 snaps.
- We can say Parker has played in five full games. In those five games, Parker has not seen less than 8 targets or finished with less than 66 receiving yards. Parker's issue is in the touchdown department, or lack thereof, scoring only once through ten weeks of the 2017 season. However, if you pace those five full games out to a szn-long pace, Parker finishes the year with 93 receptions and 1,190 yards on 141 targets. Last year that would've made Parker the 11th most targeted wideout in the NFL, with the 9th highest reception total and 7th most yards. He's quietly one of the highest PPR floor fantasy players in the NFL.
- Miami and DP get a matchup in Week 11 versus the Tampa Bay Bucs who allow the 4th most passing yards per game and don't have a CB that stands taller than 5'10. Devante Parker is 6'3.
- Parker should see a fair amount of Robert McClain (5'9) who grades out as 4th worst non-slot CB according to PFF. Looking back over the past few weeks, the Bucs have struggled covering guys similar in stature to Parker - Robby Anderson: 4-85-1, Michael Thomas: 8-65, Kelvin Benjamin: 3-39-1.
- Since Jay Ajayi was shipped off to the city of brotherly love, the Dolphin offense has seemingly transitioned to a pass-first team, averaging 39.5 pass attempts over the last two games, nearly 5 more/game than in Weeks 1-8.
- Look for Parker to keep his volume and yardage number at high levels and I think there's a good chance he finds his 2nd touchdown of the year in a game that Miami is actually favored to win.
WRs expecting Shadow Coverage
- Marqise Lee (JAX) vs. Jason McCourty (CLV) [2nd graded CB]
- DeAndre Hopkins (HOU) vs. Patrick Peterson (ARZ) [25th graded CB]
- Michael Crabtree/Amari Cooper (OAK) vs. Stephon Gilmore/Malcolm Butler (NE) [41st/48th graded CBs]
Guys I'm Staying Away From (In DFS & if I can in SZN-long)
- Josh Doctson @NO (Marshon Lattimore)
- Sammy Watkins/Robert Woods @MIN (Xavier Rhodes)
- Kelvin Benjamin @LAC (Casey Hayward)
- Patrick Peterson, Xavier Rhodes, Morris Claiborne and Darius Slay are the only CBs that have been asked to shadow opposing WRs in 5+ weeks this year.
- The top five (5) rated PFF WRs that are playing in Week 11, in order, are Antonio Brown, Doug Baldwin, Julio Jones, A.J. Green, and Golden Tatl... they may be onto something here with their grading system.
- The top five (5) rated PFF CBs that are playing in Week 11, in order, are Marshon Lattimore, Jason McCourty, Jalen Ramsey, Patrick Robinson, and Jimmy Smith.
- Breshad Perriman, Ricardo Louis and Jordan Matthews are the lowest graded WRs in Week 8.
- Xavien Howard, Kevin Johnson and David Amerson are the lowest graded coverage defenders for Week 11.
- With Will Fuller out and Patrick Peterson draped on Hopkins, look for Bruce Ellington to have a nice day following reports of getting him more involved and back-to-back 8-target weeks.
- I don't need to tell you to stay away from all CLV receivers.