2018 Fantasy Football - 1st Round Mock Draft (12-Team, 0.5 PPR)
Here are the current (January 6, 2018) ADPs for 2018 already, per fantasyfootballcalculator.com lol. Y'all are some sick fucks for already doing mocks, but I'm not here to judge. Also, if you're interested in best ball, I know Play Draft already has open lobbies for 2018 too.
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1. Le'Veon Bell (RB - PIT)
- FFC ADP: 2, RB2
- My Rank: 1, RB1
- 2017 Rank: RB2
- Do what you wanna do, this is my mans right here. RB2 on the year, behind only Gurley.
- 406 touches on the year (27+ per game), just 15 games. In per game numbers, most rush attempts, 2nd most rush yards, 3rd in rush tds, 1st in targets, receptions, 3rd in rec yards. Those receiving numbers are the the biggest reason to embrace the Pittsburgh RB.
- He would've hit 2,000 total yards if he played in 16 games.
- Big Ben's coming back, one of the top offensive lines (7th in RB, 1st in PB - per FO). No reason not to love his situation again - gives you a WR3 and an RB1 in one spot.
2. Todd Gurley (RB - LAR)
- FFC ADP: 1, RB1
- My Rank: 2, RB2
- 2017 Rank: RB1
- Would be absolutely fine taking either of these RBs, it'll be a debate all summer and I think most people will probably side with Gurley, tbh.
- He single handedly won championships - per NFL.com - he was the most frequently owned player on fantasy championship teams at 47.1%. Bell was the second highest at 27%, Kareem Hunt 3rd at 20.2% - idk how good these numbers are tbh - per ESPN.com - kamara was the highest of teams that made the championship (NOT WON), but Gurley was too.
- Either way, Gurley won 2017 - 2,093 total yards - but it was the touchdowns, the involvement in the passing game, and just the overall team. 2nd in the NFL in rec yards - 1st in rec tds for RB. If you wiped out ALL of Gurley's rushing numbers - he would've finished as WR25 in PPR. That's wild fam.
- Career highs in everything across the board, no reason to think he won't replicate what he did. Offense is going to be very good again, led the NFL in PPG, they had the 3rd best RB line per Football Outsiders this year.
3. Antonio Brown (WR - PIT)
- FFC ADP: 4, WR1
- My Rank: 3, WR1
- 2017 Rank: WR2
- Arguably should've been the NFL MVP had he not got hurt after 14 games. 2017 was the 4th straight year of Brown being the number one fantasy WR on a points per game basis... sheeeeeesh.
- Was on pace for 115 catches, 1,752 yards and over 10 touchdowns - 5th straight year of 105+ catches, 1,284+ yards and 8+ touchdowns - that's insanity - we're witnessing greatness folks. Let it ride you to victory.
- Honestly... wouldn't even be that mad if you took Brown #1 overall - he's the most consistent player in the NFL and fantasy football over the last five years in terms of production.
- Like I said, Big Ben will be back. I think the emergence of JuJu definitely helps Brown get some attention off of him. There were 3 games this szn when they weren't on the field together and Brown was way better but only because he was at a non-human pace
- But still 19 ppg without him - I mean Jesus christ 188 yards per game without him?
4. David Johnson (RB - ARZ)
- FFC ADP: 3, RB3
- My Rank: 4, RB3
- 2017 Rank: N/A
- Also hard to argue against DJ as a top-3 or even 1 pick. Obviously this is a lot to due with recency bias after he missed all of this szn with the wrist injury.
- The big ting going against DJ and not Bell or Gurley is the team. Sure, we know he's getting 25 touches/game like the other two, but the team situation is much worse for DJ. The Cardinals offense was bad last year, definitely to do with not having DJ but they were 22nd in yards/game, 30th in rush yards/game, 25th in PPG (18.4) and were 17th ranked RB line per FO.
- And the big thing is of course Carson Palmer retiring... we don't know who is going to be the QB now. They have Blaine Gabbert who they benched for Drew Stanton who's going to be a FA - so it's not pretty either way you look at it.
- But again, it just means it'll be harder for DJ to come across scoring opps if this offense can't move the ball much.
- They have a whole new coaching staff here in ARZ - Steve Wilks (former Panthers DC) takes over - defensive minded of course. Could be a good thing - ground and pound. Mike McCoy takes over as the OC - experienced but honestly not very good.
- Good thing for a guy like DJ is that these outside factors don't effect him much because of how good he is and he has that breakaway, home run ability all the time.
5. Ezekiel Elliott (RB - DAL)
- FFC ADP: 5, RB4
- My Rank: 5, RB4
- 2017 Rank: RB9
- A wacky ass year for Zeke of course with all of the suspension stuff - he gets to put that behind him and focus on the 2018 szn now.
- But when you had zeke in your lineup this year - he was very good. He had the one dud game against Denver where he had 22 total yards on 13 touches. Besides that he had at least 115 total yards or a touchdown in all 9 other games.
- On a ppg basis - he was RB2 in STD leagues, RB3 in PPR leagues, averaging nearly 27 touches a game - his 16-game pace numbers would've been 2003 total yards, 42 catches and 14.5 touchdowns.
- Despite a bad start to the szn, the Cowboys line still ranked 4th in RB per FO and they have all 5 starters under contract into 2018.
- The Cowboys said they wanted to get Zeke involved more through the air, but we only saw a slight increase - he averaged 2.1 catches/game in 2016 and 2.6 in 2017 so half a reception more per game, but the targets were higher, going from 2.6 targets a game to 3.8. He only had two games all of 2016 that he saw 5 targets in, in 2017 in just 10 games he saw 5 targets 5 separate times. But you still want to see more in that aspect if you're going to compete with the Bell and Gurleys of the fantasy world who are routinely getting 5, 6, 7 + targets every game.
6. DeAndre Hopkins (WR - HOU)
- FFC ADP: 6, WR2
- My Rank: 6, WR2
- 2017 Rank: WR1
- What a year, what a year for D-Hop.
- After a disappointing 2016, he comes back and finishes as the #1 overall fantasy WR in 2017. Lead the NFL in targets, finished with 96 catches, 1,378 yards and 13 touchdowns (led NFL) in 15 games.
- Obviously we saw breakout rookie QB Deshaun Watson tear his ACL, so you're like FACK - D-Hop bout to become D-Flop REAL quick. Nope - check out his splits
- Almost no difference in QBs. Nonetheless - 1 TD /game with WATSON!!!!! Crikey.
- Watson tore his ACL in November but is reportedly already running and is scheduled to be good for OTAs, so no worries here.
- D-Hop had his highest YPR since 2014 (14.4) which I like - the looks he was getting were further downfield. 9th highest aDOT of all WRs with at least 90 targets (33 WRs).
- The other part about D-Hop you gotta love is his involvement near the endzone. Career-high 10 targets inside the opponent's 10. Caught 7 of those for touchdowns. Look back at his previous years - 2016 - caught 1 touchdown on 6 targets down there, 2015 - 4/7, 2014 - 1/4, 2013 - 1/6.
- His consistency was unbelievable as you can see in the chart below:
- The twou should be a duo for years to come.
7. Leonard Fournette (RB - JAX)
- FFC ADP: 17, RB11
- My Rank: 7, RB5
- 2017 Rank: RB8
- Honestly not sure what I'm more impressed with, the Rams turn around or the Jags. It might be the latter, solely because I feel like the Jags planned out exactly how they saw their future step-by-step and it came to fruition: invest heavily in defense through free agency and the draft (Bouye, Campbell, Church, Ramsey, Jack, Albert) and wanted to get away from Bortles and their passing offense by taking Founette. No one, at least I definitely didn't, saw some shit like this happening. It worked to perfection, every piece of the plan.
- Fournette, the 4th overall pick in the 2017 draft racked up over 1,340 total yards and 10 touchdowns on 304 touches in just 13 games - szn long pace gives him 1,650 yards, 12.3 TDs and 374 touches (44 catches on 59 targets) ~ elite RB1 numbers. That pace tho.. means that he needs to stay healthy, definitely a concern as it was for him coming out of LSU with the ankle injuries. Lower body injuries cost him a few games in 2017 and hampered him a bit throughout the 2nd half of the szn.
- As the adage goes, if he misses games, you're not getting a 0 in your fantasy lineup, he's worth this high of a pick based on the volume he gets when he does see the field. Only Ezekiel Elliott (24.2) and Le'Veon Bell (21.4) averaged more carries per game than Fournette (20.6) did in 2017. With the team built the way it is, an elite defense that will win the team games, the volume isn't going anywhere for him. He had 15 touches+ in every single game in 2017 including playoffs. There was only two games all szn that he didn't touch the ball at least 20 times. And when it mattered most, their 3 playoff games, the Jags rode the shit out of him - the former LSU ball carrier averaged nearly 26 touches a game. Also scored 4 tuddys in those 3 games - stay woke.
- Just like Gurley and LA, scoring opps looked to be a major downside for Fournette heading into the szn - wasn't the case. Jacksonville who ranked 25th in PPG (19.9) in 2016, posted 25.9 PPG in 2017 - 6th highest in the NFL. Fournette's 9 rush TDs were tied for 3rd most in the NFL, he as tied for 5th most rushes inside the 10 (24) and 7th most rushes inside the 5 (12), and remember, he only played 13 games...
- The offense should remain almost exactly the same, depending on what they do at QB, but you gotta love Fournette's combination of floor and upside heading into 2018.
8. Odell Beckham Jr. (WR - NYG)
- FFC ADP: 10, WR3
- My Rank: 8, WR3
- 2017 Rank: N/A (PPG 4 Games - WR3)
- This meme perfectly describes my feelings towards OBJ after he was my 1st round pick in multiple $$$ league drafts in 2017 - only to miss Week 1, do his best impression of Dwanye Bowe in Week 2, before cracking his ankle and missing all but 4 games.
- Regardless, the man is from another planet. And I'll gladly let him break my heart again. Statistically speaking, no one's been better than OBJ over the first 47 games of their career. We're looking at 10.6 targets, 6.7 receptions, 94.1 RECEIVING YARDS AND 0.81 TOUCHDOWNS/GAME. YO THAT'S REALLY LITERALLY 16.2 PPR fantasy points every single game ON AVERAGE - we're not talking about the games that he just blows up and wins you weeks by his damn self.
- The 3 question marks for OBJ this offszn are - the QB, his ankle and the contract situation.
- The biggest puzzle piece here is the QB. We saw the circus that the Giants became at the QB position in 2017. They sit at the #2 overall in the draft this year - will they go with a QB? Highly possible. Maybe they sit that QB for another year though and Eli remains starter - which is what I think will happen at this moment, so we're going off of that.
- Next the ankle, it happened in Week 5 and he's expect to make a full recovery and be ready to roll so I'm not worried about that unless conflicting reports come out but I've seen some IG shit of him doing drills he already looks good.
- Contract - he's on the team option that'll pay him 8.1 million next year - but he wants a long term one obviously, the Giants should give it to him and let that be that, but he'll be a Giant next year either way.
9. Alvin Kamara (RB - NO)
- FFC ADP: 8, RB6
- My Rank: 9, RB6
- 2017 Rank: RB3
- I was surprised to see Kamara ranked even higher than this when I looked at some other fanalyst's rankings but I think I'm groovy right here at 10. If you're unfamiliar with who Alvin Kamara is 1. you prolly got some more general humane issues going on and live in Mumbai or some shit 2. Go do yourself a favor and watch this https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hX6SsiGKCWc also do yaself a favor and mute that bullshit music going on in the background.
- Kamara put together one the single greatest rookie szns OAT of all time. 1,554 total yards, 13 touchdowns and 82 receptions, all on just over 200 touches.
- There's two arguments that people will make against Kamara as to why they wouldn't pick him this high.
- 1. Ingram is still there. 2. His efficiency was off the chart, it has nowhere to go but down.
- So, Ingram - yup you right, IDT Ingram is going anywhere - But where tf was he when Kamara did all this last year? Oh yeah... right there as well - and Ingram ate too.
- Which leads me to my next point as to his efficiency - Kamara is basically a rich man's version of Tevin Coleman. Think about it - heading into last szn - everyone as saying no way both guys can eat, Coleman can't keep up this efficiency, yak yak yak. Now while his numbers did dip a bit, Coleman as still firmly an RB2 to finish 2017.
- You can't forget that the Saints started with AP in the backfield too. Kamara started the season averaging just 6.6 touches and 45 yards/game over their first 3 and still finished as RB3 - but in 2018 you can expect Kamara to handle a huge workload out of the gate. He didn't have a single game with more than 12 carries on the year. You can argue that his efficiency might decrease, but his volume has nowhere to go but up.. after already being the 3rd most targeted (101) RB in the entire NFL.
- Kamara only has upwards to go in this offense, an offense that's completely shifted over from a pass-first to run-first offense, and with an aging Brees and an improving defense, it'll stay the same.
New Orleans 2016 2017
17 23 Rush Attempts 404 444 Pass TD 38 23
674 536 Team Pass Attempts Inside Opponent's 10 33 62 Team Pass TDs Inside Opponent's 10 24 13
- The Saints realize they have a very small window right now with Brees to make a championship run and the way they do that is feed their backs and let Brees take as few hits as possible, while improving their defense. Brees pass attempts fell off ridiculously from 674 to 536 and of those 536 attempts, 172 of them went to Ingram or Kamara (32%).
- Both guys can and should eat in the Saints backfield. I like Kamara more for his upside, Ingram's fumble history, Kamara's receiving ability and his volume increase ceiling. And he good as hell.
- And their offensive line is one of the, if not the best in the NFL per Football Outsiders.
10. LeSean McCoy (RB - BUF)
- FFC ADP: 15, RB10
- My Rank: 10, RB7
- 2017 Rank: RB7
- Never change Bills mafia. This one for y'all.
- I was just looking at some numbers... check this out. Shady's rookie szn (2009) was the ONLY year in his entire career that he averaged less than 92 total yards per game - he's been pretty much at or above 100 yards/game each szn. So every time this man steps onto the field, he's throwing up a 100-spot for ya team. If that ain't OG triple OG double OG idk what is.
- Shady did his best Julio Jones impression all szn, whobbling off to the sideline with ankle, leg, and ankle injuries but managed to play in all 16 games, 31-of-32 over the last 2 years.
- He had a career low (4.0) in yards per carry but caught 59 passes which is his highest total since 2010. He was the entire team in Buffalo this year basically. Between the madness that went on at QB and the trades before the szn, Shady was the only constant for the Bills.
- So, why is he behind Kamara, or any of these backs? Well for one, I think the age and injury bug are due to catch up to him, so I'd forecast a few games being missed for Shady. Their QB situation right now is a disaster so they're going to continue to ride him. He finished with 50 or fewer rushing yards in 7-of-16 games and his rushing TD total dipped from 13 to 6 which spoke more to the offense than him as a player. What was a strength of the Bills just a year ago, their offensive line, ranked 27th in run-blocking per Football Outsiders in 2017.
- It's pretty clear the Bills don't think they can win with Tyrod at QB. They have a lot of picks (2x 1st round, 2x 2nd round, 3rd, 4th, 2x 5th) so they're definitely going to be looking QB at some point - there's a good chance Shady is running behind a rookie QB in 2018. That's obviously not a death blow, I have him at pick 10.. but I like the other RBs before him.
- Kareem Hunt - Something really rubs me the wrong way about the Chiefs shipping Alex Smith off. I get that they just don't think he can win them a championship, but they're putting a lot of faith into unproven rookie Patrick Mahomes. If for some reason he doesn't work out, Hunt's szn could take a big dip in production. He finished strong, but I also don't love the middle part of the szn where he fell of the face of the earth going touchdown-less in 9 straight along and rushing for fewer than 50 yards in 5-of-7 of those.
- Michael Thomas - Love the consistency and floor, but we saw the direction this offense is headed. Heavy emphasis on ground game between Ingram and Kamara. Saw a dip from 9 touchdowns to 5 as we saw their rushing TD numbers increase from 17 in 2016 to 23 in 2017. Drew Brees pass attempts/TDs inside opponent's 10-yard line: 2017 - 33/13 | 2016 - 62/24. Their game plan just isn't the same.